Superfly - Pesky fly on the wall

Transcept Pharmaceuticals (TSPT) Thoughts for 7/14/11

2011-07-10T18:44:00.000-07:00

Just a quick little post on Transcept this week before their PDUFA date for Intermezzo, pretty much a low dose of already approved Ambien. I've seen quite a few bearish people lately on this name, and it has corresponded pretty well with the begin of the decline in share price.

In late 2009 TSPT received a CRL which pushed the PPS down to 5$ or so a share from 15$ due to FDA concerns over safety. TSPT has created a stricter label and done a driving study to address the FDA's concerns, and being that they have that prior CRL I don't believe they will receive another.

Also note that the FDA has been very generous on handing out approvals this year (20 vs 21 all of last year), partly due to many being previous CRL resubmissions like XNPT, ACUR, KV.A, FCSC, among others. TSPT will be the next in my opinion.

Also, I think the decline in PPS to this extreme as of late is due to the traditional "Runup" crowd taking their money out, and being that there are very few O/S out there (13mm, 65% institutional owned per Google Finance), it is not hard to tank the share price.

In summary, this is why I am holding a position through.....

1) TSPT - 60mm~ cash balance with a very low burn rate, 106mm market cap

2) Prior CRL and address of problems, one of my criteria to hold through

3) Risk/Reward is now on the buyer side @ 8$ vs 11$, worst case is trading down to cash, upside IMO is 11-13$. I dont like giving PPS targets though, that isn't my specialty much, i'm more on the concept side of the DD.

4) High institutional ownership for a low float biotech // Purdue Pharma is TSPT's partner

5) Ambien is a very successful approved drug, TSPT should be able to get their lower dose version approved.

All is IMO and is a quick post of some thoughts. Also holding CLSN and IGXT at the moment, approximately 50/50 in the portfolio, small position of SNGX.

Stocks I'm watching 4/29/11

2011-04-28T21:35:00.000-07:00

Soligenix (OTC:SNGX) - .22

Interesting movement as of late, golden cross on the horizon and some volume expansion last 2 days.

Pharmathene (AMEX:PIP) - 3.49

Something may be up here...can see the last 5-6 days the same amount of volume all buy days. Reminds me a bit of XOMA before it blew up.

Adventrix Pharma (AMEX:ANX) 2.65

Still watching/holding this, rebought yesterday...scAMEX market makers painted this down it was 2.72 or so right before the close. Typical BS of the AMEX and is why I rarely trade it.

Gramercy Capital (NYSE:GKK) - 3.05

Have my eye on this, they are in a bit of trouble so speculative but if they get it sorted out this is very undervalued IMO...look at CT recently and thats what happens when you get your problems sorted out (GKK is in the final stages of sorting out)

YRC Worldwide (NYSE:YRCW)- 2.06

Another very spec play but it could finally be turning a bit, large buy volume recently...watching for a break over that 50 SMA.

Scan/Ideas for 4/27/11

2011-04-26T16:24:00.000-07:00

So....I've been aspiring to be a trader instead of living in a cubicle when I get out of school, so time to start scanning new stocks every night in order to be successful. These scans won't necessarily be daytrades, rather...stocks I find interesting for possibly a swing trade or something based on insider buying, unusual volume, new lows, highs etc. Lets see how this goes for a few days.

CHINA (CDC Corporation): $3.32

Mentioned this last night on twitter, and continuing today very odd trading action last week or so with this scammy name, venture a guess its going to really rip one of these days. Nice range for about a week as well for daytrading. If trend holds maybe it sees the 200 SMA @ 4.00 in a week or so.

NSPH (Nanosphere) ($3.00)

Volume picking up the last couple days, 33mm net cash 85mm market cap. Former runner so have it on watch, could be putting in a bottom.

GIGM (Gigamedia) ($1.55)

Nice buying action as of late, through 1.63 may get interesting to 2.00..another former runner. Peers MCZ, GLUU, COOL, etc have been on a tear, watching this for sure. Another company with a large cash history, but discounted due to being an overseas stock...1.62 a share in cash per Finviz.

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GIGM&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&b=1

CLDX - (Celldex Therapeutics) ($4.17)

Chart is shaping up into ASCO, not sure if they are presenting but its always a mover this time of year regardless.

Also watching ANX for pullback as I sold out today @ $2.55 from $2.30. Taking profits this year and being safe, will buy a pullback. I think it sees 5-6$ by mid-July to mid-August.

AMSC (American Superconductor Corp) ($11.72)

Not quite time to buy, but this is a pretty good company. Buy when nobody wants to own it is the old adage. Watching it for opportunities, perhaps after earnings it will be time. Company has little debt and lots of cash, they are financially safe and there has been a guy loading up his trust all the way down. Prob is the biggest customer quit taking shipments until they work through their inventory (about 6 months till shipments return to normal). I think there is time on this one though....lots of time.

Acquisition target at these prices maybe?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=amsc
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/880807.htm

4/24/2011 Update & Plays for Summer thoughts

2011-04-23T22:53:00.000-07:00

Portfolio value : $12.361.87

2011 Starting portfolio value : $5,945.00

Gain : $6,416.87. (-1,100 deposits) = $5,316.87.

Account #2 (3rd party verification) : Started less than 2 weeks ago with 3,000.00 margin account, now over 5,600 as of Friday. Margined off AMRN going into the data release and paid off, now just scalping for small gains for the time being.

Gains : $BORK Borqoue Industries, $.37 - $.80 thanks to @InvestorsLive for a very timely tip. Also $DEPO approval, $XNPT approval, and $AMRN positive data, holding through on them.

Losses : Lost my tuckus on $OREX holding through the PDUFA date, wiped all $DEPO gains and quite a bit extra, never again on a diet drug what a stupid trade. Personal note to all after witnessing OREX, when you see the market maker "BOOK" show up in afterhours on the ask before a critical date GET OUT OF THERE, they are a retail trading desk and its baddddddd news.

What I learned in 1Q 2011 : First, I abandoned the "plan" I made at the end of last year because it was not working, I was slowly bleeding cash away as I had done the previous 2 years I have traded. Instead, I have went to playing very heavy and taking smaller gains, and so far it's working well. Also, another thing is to just turn off CNBC for the day and not pay attention to what any of the idiots are saying...they clearly do not have a clue and just keep calling tops and bottoms daily instead of actually using a brain. A man could get lost with their information...

My "calls" for summer :

(1) ANX - AdVentrix Pharmaceuticals ($2.36)

This is my favorite favorite play for the summer, and I have a sizeable portion of 2 portfolios in it. I really think that this is a solid play into the summer (NOT investment) because it contains all of the "variables" needed.

1) A "history," both on the chart and as a trading stock

2) A PDUFA date on September 1st and a second possible date to be awarded at some point.

3) Highly "questionable" company (ie:scam) that will attract large masses of sheep who will blindly buy it because there is a low float and a PDUFA date.

I would not miss out on this one this summer, I may just go all in on it. Being that it traded to 8$ a year or two ago on hype alone (pre-R/S), I really dont think its out of the realm of possibilities this goes back to 6-8$ at some point this summer. The market cap is very small and it wont take much to move it. Go check out the Y boards if you dont believe me, they are already well-entrenched in the "longs vs the bashers" debate. VERY HEB'ESQUE, this could be the reincarnation of it.

You heard it here first on this one lol, before anyone else wants it. They do loveeeee dilution though so trade accordingly :-)

BVTI : Biovest International ($0.55)

There are doubters of this company, but I think many of them are being short-sighted and shortchanging this little company. They just got out of bankruptcy which lasted about 2 years, and kept their shareholders with only small dilution. Biovest is government funded, Gov't helped fund the Ph. 3 trials for their lymphoma vaccine BioVaxID, and the Gov't is currently helping fund the construction of a small-medium sized production facility near Minneapolis MN.

The doubters say that BVTI needs to do another Phase III trial, and all they do is recycle data over and over again. Well, #1, the data they currently have is not that bad, in fact IMO it is better than Provenge (DNDN)'s data who failed phase 3 trials...and had to modify endpoints just to make it work at all. Also, the doubters say they just recycle data...well DUH, they have been in bankruptcy, I am quite sure that the creditors would have really appreciated BVTI doing R&D during the bankruptcy process....not. They are dragging their feet a bit now that they are out, but say they will still submit stuff to the FDA by the end of the year.

Biovest has some fairly impressive stuff going for it, and is definitely worth a watch at 50c with the small-sized market cap at these levels. They will need funding at some point though as they only have enough to get into 2012, so be on watch for that.

Some reading for BVTI to check out :

BK Info : http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/news/2010/10/25/biovest-gets-funding-to-leave-bankruptcy.html

WSJ 4/05/2011 : http://blogs.wsj.com/bankruptcy/2011/04/05/company-sees-bankruptcy-as-boon-to-cancer-vaccine/?mod=google_news_blog

Their investigator is very highly touted and was recognized by TIME as one of the most influential people in the entire world in 2010 for his work on THIS vaccine : http://www.newswise.com/articles/larry-kwak-named-to-time-magazine-s-100-most-influential-people-in-the-world

Important 2009 ASCO information (the coming out party for Kwak) : http://www.caring4cancer.com/go/skin/news?NewsItemId=43607

Note : This is a fairly risky stock as the FDA is very unpredictable and could very well make them do some more trials, but they have already been funded/watched by the government for 8 years worth of trials, they can't do too many more than that.

Also like ACAS, KFN/KKR, BMO, and Bank of Nova Scotia long for IRA accounts in terms of safe plays.

Portfolio Update - 1/23/2010

2011-01-22T22:40:00.000-08:00

Account summary 1/23/2011

Account Balance : $6,115.39 (300$ Deposit) --> $5,815.39 (5,945.00 previous)
Positions :

1) ISAC - 30,000 @ .10 (58%) (20,000 @ .097 for 33% portfolio previous)
2) DEPO - 400 @ 5.88 (38%) (0 @ 0.00)
3) EMAKQ - 1000 @ .25 (4%) (0 @ 0.00)
Cash : 0% (66%)

Because stocks were hot the first couple of weeks in January, I attempted to do some trading, but most everything I touched went sour. So, lost a few hundred bucks, DIMEQ was the primary winner.

TIV - Lost a fair amount in this POS for the 2nd time in the past couple of years, will never touch this again. It is a sinkhole that doesn't follow its sector and if anyone buys it they will get their ass kicked every single time.

KV.A - Bought a small position here as a spec to hold through the FDA date, but instead I got rewarded with a 3 month delay, so not only did I not see an up or down but lost about 15% in the process if I remember right. Spec gone awry.

WEST - Solar MOMO was everywhere, but if you can imagine I picked the one that didn't do anything AT ALL. I was a bagholder in this POS once before, and was reminded of why I said I will not touch a solar stock, I dont care if they make money or not. They ALL suck and do not play them.

ISAC - Added some more of this, awaiting their filings to become fully reporting again, which are supposed to happen this month. Could be my favorite company ever since I started trading, the only drawback is don't know what the current O/S count is. I really have some GREAT information in this thread, highly recommended to check it out...these guys know what they are doing, that is to be certain.

http://www.mystockbuddy.com/forum/penny_pics/3815-isac_passport_brands_inc_i_c_issacs_company.html

DEPO - Scaled into this one a bit early the day Abbott said they wanted to drop em, although not a bad position PPS. Not 100% certain, but think I might hold through, drug looks good, and their phase III Serada is much bigger and will have data out this year. Don't forget, while Serada failed phase III trials previously, so did the current drug with a PDUFA date, and once they straightened out designs with the FDA the drug passed. They did the same with Serada so thinking they may see more success.

EMAKQ - Just a little spec play thinking shares stay. CEO actually took the time to answer an email of mine --- major plus in my book and shows me that he cares about the current shareholders.

Watching ACUR, AMRN, RAS, CPRKQ.

Trade Review (December Tax Sellers) from Dec. 20 Post

2011-01-06T16:36:00.000-08:00

Wanted to update my Tax seller ideas from Dec. 20th...

COCO - Dec. 20th - $4.60 --> Jan. 6th - 5.57

Gain : 21.08%

XOMA LTD - Dec. 20th - 2.40 --> Jan. 6th - 6.78 (7.40's hi)

Gain : 182.5%

NEI - Dec. 20th - 1.53 --> Jan. 6th - 1.74

Gain : 13.72%

YRCW : Dec. 20th - 3.85 --> Jan. 6th - 3.53

Gain : -8.31%

Overall gain : 42.33%

I would sell all at this point except for maybe NEI.

2011 Gameplan - Day 1

2011-01-03T20:22:00.001-08:00

Account Balance : $5,945.00

Positions :

1) ISAC - 20,000 @ .097 (33%)

2) Cash (66%)

Ok, it is 2011 and it is time for me to get focused. I had a much better 2010 than I did 2009 and was positive for the year, but I really messed up with poor trade management in Nov/Dec and threw all my gains away and then some extra. For this reason, I have dumped all in my portfolio regardless of gain/loss except ISAC and tomorrow morning will be starting 2011 with my plan. While I have seen some very big gains by doing what I have been doing (aimless method looking for the quick 100%), I have netted myself a (-) in the account each year since I began trading as a 20 year old in early 2009. Patience is my biggest obstacle, thus my plan I am going to try is aiming to allow me to do three things :

1) Fufill my desire to hold ISAC until they become fully reporting again this year
2) Utilize my ability (Thestreet.com October biotech prediction contest co-winner), to analyze biotech stocks and *hopefully* pick the right ones for approval
3) Make sure my desire to daytrade is satisfied.

The biggest (and perhaps only problem) I have had thus far in my trading career is my account balance, because I do not have that much money I feel I am forced to try for larger gains than most, even though my instinct says to take 5%. This year I will be looking for 5-10%~ or so swing trade gains and booking most of them. Small gains will add up over time.

My plan for the first quarter of 2011 (then will be subject to evaluation) will be the following :

1) 1/3 of portfolio in longer term swing play (Satisfied --> ISAC)

2) 1/3 of portfolio in PDUFA/Trial results bio (Not Satisfied)

3) 1/3 of portfolio reserved for trading (Satisfied)

4) Profits will be distributed between #2 and #3 evenly

I am hoping that if I execute my plan I will have doubled my account by spring, I can do it if I remain disciplined at all times and do not stare at the level 2 all day long.

For #2, some options for me will initially be :

--> DEPO
--> ACUR
--> NEOP
--> T.B.A.

Once again, in order to be successful I (as well as anyone else) must exercise patience, believe in something you are buying, and stick to a plan, or they will lose every time. I'm tired of it and ready to change.

Good luck to all in 2011 !!

Add (2011 plays) :: Acura Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ACUR)

2010-12-26T21:34:00.000-08:00

Acura Pharmaceuticals (3.29)

http://www.google.com/finance?q=acur

I'm going to just add some stocks to my 2011 list one by one, this is another one that I like through 2011 as a biotech play. It is just coming out of a huge base that its been forming ever since their product, Acurox, was denied by a FDA panel due to it containing Niacin, which is used to deal with cholesterol issues and we consume in foods like dairy products. From my understanding Acura tried to insert Niacin into their tablets to try to keep people from getting addicted to the product.

http://www.niacinsideeffects.org/

Recent news that has perked my interest :

King Pharmaceuticals and Acura Pharmaceuticals Announce Submission of New Drug Application for ACUROX® Tablets

BRISTOL, Tenn. and PALATINE, Ill., Dec. 20, 2010 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- King Pharmaceuticals®, Inc. (NYSE: KG) and Acura Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: ACUR) today announced that King has submitted a New Drug Application (NDA) for ACUROX® (oxycodone HCl) Tablets to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), including a request for priority review classification. ACUROX® is an immediate release tablet containing oxycodone HCl intended for the relief of moderate to severe pain. ACUROX® utilizes Acura's patented Aversion® Technology which is designed to deter opioid abuse by intravenous injection of dissolved tablets and nasal snorting of crushed tablets. ACUROX® does not contain niacin. A separate NDA submission for ACUROX® with Niacin Tablets is subject to an FDA Complete Response Letter. Further details on the response to this FDA action letter will be provided at a later date.

The FDA is expected to determine whether to accept the NDA for ACUROX® for filing and consider the priority review request within 60 days.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/king-pharmaceuticals-and-acura-pharmaceuticals-announce-submission-of-new-drug-application-for-acurox-tablets-112176424.html

Why is this significant to me? Well according to this article below, the primary reason that the FDA did not like Acurox is because it contained Niacin...

US FDA Panel Rejects Acura Pharmaceuticals, Inc. And King Pharmaceuticals®, Inc.'s Painkiller Acurox
4/23/2010

PALATINE, Ill. and BRISTOL, Tenn., April 22 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Acura Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq:ACUR - News) and King Pharmaceuticals®, Inc. (NYSE:KG - News) today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) Anesthetic and Life Support Drugs and Drug Safety and Risk Management Committees voted that they do not have enough evidence to support the approval of the New Drug Application (NDA) for Acurox® (oxycodone HCl and niacin) Tablets for the treatment of moderate to severe pain, considering the deterrent effects of niacin as well as the potential deterrent effects of the other features specific to Acurox®. The addition of niacin to Acurox® was central to the deliberations. The FDA is not bound by the Advisory Committees' recommendation, but may take its advice into consideration when evaluating the NDA for Acurox® Tablets. Acura and King will work with the FDA to determine the next steps for the Acurox® development program.

http://www.biospace.com/news_story.aspx?NewsEntityId=177835

Furthermore, in terms of stock price, the PPS took an approximately 50% climb just prior to the panel from 6$ to 9$, implying to me that the market was placing a 400 million market cap on ACUR with Acurox with 44 million O/S. Currently, the market cap is a mere 144 million, and the share price jumped over a dollar in minutes (2.90 - 3.90) when it was announced that ACUR submitted the new NDA. Assuming the FDA takes the application, ACUR belongs back at 6$ by the FDA date in my opinion, as the chances of approval are back // possibly a better chance of approval.

Acura also has a fairly deep pipeline :

http://acurapharm.com/products/

Another reason I like them....they are AHEAD OF SCHEDULE on their plans. I hate companies that perpetually run behind on things...these guys knew what they wanted to do early and got it done.

King Pharmaceuticals and Acura Pharmaceuticals Announce Plans to Submit an NDA for Acurox(R) Tablets Without Niacin
Submission Targeted for Early 2011

Press Release Source: King Pharmaceuticals, Inc. On Monday May 3, 2010, 4:41 pm EDT

BRISTOL, TN and PALATINE, IL--(Marketwire - 05/03/10) - King Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE:KG - News) and Acura Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACUR - News) today announced that the Companies plan to develop and submit a New Drug Application (NDA) for Acurox® (oxycodone HC1) Tablets (without niacin) intended to relieve moderate to severe pain and introduce limits and impediments to potential abuse via nasal snorting of crushed tablets and intravenous injection of dissolved tablets. At an April 22, 2010 joint Advisory Committee meeting, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) questioned the effectiveness of niacin included in the current Acurox® formulation but cited no concerns with the snorting and intravenous abuse limiting features of the product. The Companies expect to submit an NDA for Acurox® Tablets (without niacin) in early 2011.

The Companies also plan to develop and submit NDAs for two additional immediate release opioid analgesic products utilizing Acura's proprietary Aversion® Technology; Vycavert® (hydrocodone bitartrate/acetaminophen) Tablets and Acuracet® (oxycodone HCl/acetaminophen) Tablets. Like Acurox®, these additional product candidates are patent protected compositions comprising a mixture of active and inactive ingredients intended to relieve pain and introduce limits and impediments to nasal and intravenous abuse.

Finally, per their 3rd quarter results, they have a pretty low burn rate (2.5mm), over 25 million in cash, no debt, and a partnership with a big pharma (King, recently acquired by Pfizer).

Imo, and all biotechs are speculative plays, keep that in mind when playing OR investing in them.

Christmas goodies - 2011 ideas

2010-12-24T00:02:00.000-08:00

Whew...stupid XOMA, I didnt even get a chance to buy it the next morning. 180% in 3 days later I sit wondering what could have been...

Going to post a little list of a few of my plays for 2011, and we'll see how they do later :)

MGM - MGM Resorts International (14.62)

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:MGM

I've been playing this one and LVS on and off since they were down in the 2$'s, but now that the economy is slowly starting to gain its footing I think this one will have a good 2011. Las Vegas Sands may own Macau, but this guy owns Vegas, and never underestimate the American consumer's desire to spend...and gamble. City Center is the top dog and will be while LVS focuses abroad, and WYNN diversifies itself between the two. I dont think 30$ is out of the question next year if traffic picks up, but they do have alot of debt. There is so much dirty money behind the world of gambling though they wont go bankrupt. IMO

MOT - Motorola (9.00)

http://www.google.com/finance?q=mot

This is one of my favorite stocks, and they will be splitting the business in the beginning of January. While the Apple folks are worshipping their Iphones and Ipads, meanwhile these guys are quietly (and quickly) sneaking up on them with the Droid. I think the split will really allow the cellphone side of the company to flourish going forward, and look for this one to trade much better after they R/S the stock and decrease the O/S. Possibly even restart the dividend sometime next year.

OREX - Orexigen (8.05)

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:OREX

It looks like we have a winner (possibly 2 in VVUS), but Orexigen is clearly in the driver seat in the massive obesity market for the time being. I would not rule out a complete response letter in January, but from company guidance in conference calls worst case scenario is later in 2011 approval. Post-marketing studies will crimp profits a bit, but the obesity market needs help badly no matter whether people want to admit it or not. Orexigen's market cap is 1/2 of VVUS's right now and worst case I think they need to gravitate towards each other in the 500's. IMO Orexigen should be up there at 766mm with VVUS, but apparently the market doesnt think so. This is one of my specs for 2011, lets see how it works out.

MBI - MBIA Inc. (9.86)

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:MBI

MBIA is really starting to make some headway with suing Countrywide, Bank of America, etc, if they can be successful there is no telling how much money is headed their way. INSANE amounts of money.

Recent court decision : http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6BM4HR20101223

Aside from that, they have done a pretty good job of weathering the storm without being able to write new insurance...perhaps next year they can get their top ratings back if they win some lawsuits. I would think BAC may want to settle with them rather than risk getting spanked hard.

ISAC : I.C. Isaacs and Company (.12)

http://www.google.com/finance?q=isac

This is my other spec play for 2011, they went "into the dark" a few years back because of financial troubles, but recently they have come out of the dark with their first couple of PR's since they went into the dark. Recently appointed THE majority shareholder to run the company, he has a long history in building solid companies. Also, they hired Bob Stec, who originally ran the Girbaud line when VF Corporation owned it and when it was very popular, so he knows the brand and how to market it.

Also partnership for distribution recently expanded to include their new lacrosse clothing line which was successfully test marketed in high end stores + Dicks Sporting Goods is Samsung, who works with several big name clothing companies.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ernest-jacquet-elected-non-executive-chairman-of-the-board-of-ic-isaacs-inc-111854059.html

I have a few more, will post them later.

Tax sellers (Update from previous post)

2010-12-20T15:39:00.006-08:00

Well here we are as I blogged about a couple months back...tax seller bounce time. Keep in mind that many companies that experience this have an underlying problem, which makes them a speculative play. (NOT every one though!!!). Here are some that I am watching for the next month or two.

COCO - Corinthian Colleges (4.60)

I am not too fond of the business until more information comes out as to how much money they are going to be able to make. They can't go out on the street and grab people anymore like they used to after Obama stopped that...I like it with a break over the 50 day MA. May even double in the next year but I won't be around for it until I know how the business will be affected.

XOMA - Xoma ltd (2.40)

Little biotech that used to have a history of big moves until the reverse split...looks like the millions of bagholder shares have been flushed out as there has been very nice bottoming action for the past month and a half. I believe they have some phase 2 data coming out early next year, have not looked hard. Lots of buy volume the past week or so with no movement, it should rip pretty soon. Stop below the bottom.

NEI - Network Engines (1.53)

I like this tech company long, it might even be a M&A candidate down the road. The sad thing is that the news that tanked it early in the year was negated by their next earnings report and the stock has not recovered. Sooner or later its headed north IMO, big revenue growth.

YRCW - YRC Worldwide (3.85)

I think the reason this has not went north is because people think they may need to dilute again. Nonetheless, millions of tax sell shares have probably been sold recently, and a usually high shorted stock may spell a big move in early 2010. I like it here and I like it long <--(SPEC).

AVNR - Avanir Pharmaceuticals (4.05)

I love this company long, but nobody knows how much they will sell of Zenvia initially. Looks like people simply took profits the last couple of months and it has been hanging that 50 MA well. Already did a big capital raise, it looks bottomed to me. Stop on it under 3.75 if desired.

Thats it for now, will add more later. All IMO and I dont own any at the second, but am watching.

**For some reason, it isnt showing the charts for the middle 3. Will see if I can fix it later.

My current SPECULATIVE play for 2011

2010-12-01T21:11:00.000-08:00

I think I am going to start using this more for posting stocks that I like next year, here is one that I really like as a SPECULATIVE stock for 2011. It has a low O/S count, so you must must must use limit orders. (And yes, I know that its a OTC stock so you have to, but there are not a terrible large amount of shares out there.)

ISAC

Website(s) :

http://www.icisaacs.com/

http://www.girbaud.com/

http://www.flowsocietylacrosse.com/

Background on ISAC, a very old company :
http://www.answers.com/topic/i-c-isaacs-company

This is a company who appears to be coming out of the "dark" after a few years of complete silence. they used to earn ~.70 or so per year, they are licensed to sell the old Girbaud French clothing line. I believe (NOT certain) that they got screwed by a customer before they went silent, looking back at their last SEC filings they had a bunch of cash one time, then the next it was gone and A/R allowance for doubtful accounts went up approximately the same amount.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"I.C. Isaacs & Company, Inc. Sees FY 2006 EPS At Lower End Of Previous Range-Monday, 13 Nov 2006 04:30pm EST

I.C. Isaacs & Company, Inc. announced that it is likely to report
earnings towards the low end of the previously issued range of $0.76 to $0.79 per diluted share for fiscal 2006."

www.reuters.com/finance/stock...20061113213000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now if you notice in that Reuters link, in April '07 they got rid of their CEO (Rizzo) and named a new guy (Stec) the new CEO. In Sept. 07 they announced that he signed a long term deal, and that was the last of the PR news for Reuters who covered them very regularly prior to that.

Who is this Stec fellow and of what significance is he you might ask?

1) He was CEO of Girbaud in the early 90's when the Girbaud jeans were "hip." Rappers were rapping about them, everybody wore them, etc etc.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"NEW YORK -- Robert S.Stec, who resigned as president of Marithe &
Francois Girbaud and O Wear last week, has joined Hat Brands, Inc., as president and chief executive officer. This is a new position."

www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-14695287.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2) Who ran Girbaud originally?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VF APPOINTS STEC PRESIDENT OF GIRBAUD

NEW YORK -- Robert S. Stec has been named president of Girbaud North America, filling a position that has been empty since July, when Bernard Duflos left the company.

www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-8078439.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This individual helped build Girbaud for VF back in the day, and he is back now with Girbaud through ISAC. Girbaud is one segment, but there is another segment...the one that they built while they were in hiding. It is called Flow Society, a lacrosse-style brand of clothing that is on the upswing. I have personally seen it at Dicks sporting goods, here are a few of the products online :

http://www4.shopping.com/flow-societ...nnies/products

Good article about the Girbaud history : http://www.answers.com/topic/marith-fran-ois-girbaud

And an article about how Stec built the brand here amongst a poor economy..at one point it was the fastest growing segment of VF Corporation itself :

http://www.allbusiness.com/north-ame.../386535-1.html

Now, what is going on here that makes it so significant? Here's the first PR they put out in several years (Nov 10th) :

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I.C. Isaacs Retains Cameron Associates as Investor Relations Advisor

NEW YORK, Nov. 10, 2010 /PRNewswire/ -- I.C. Isaacs & Company, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: ISAC) today announced that it has retained Cameron Associates, Inc. as its investor relations advisor. Cameron is a 34-year-old New York-based, full-service investor relations firm that represents a wide variety of publicly-held companies in the U.S., Canada and Australia. The firm has a wealth of experience representing growing and emerging companies.

"Over the last three years, Isaacs has repositioned its primary brand, Marithe' + Francois Girbaud, an international French-based clothing company with close to $300 million in annual sales into a positive position in the young men's market segment," said Robert S. Stec, Chief Executive Officer of I.C. Isaacs. "In addition to Girbaud the company has conceptualized and launched the 'Flow Society' brand of authentic lacrosse gear for young men women and boys. Internally we have established a new business platform, with an eye toward growing our portfolio of quality brand offerings.

"In the months and quarters ahead, we expect to grow revenue and to establish a profitable and solid enterprise for our shareholders. Cameron will assist Isaacs in communicating its investment appeals and engaging the financial community to ensure a greater understanding and appreciation of our strategy and our performance, as our company builds a leadership position in the unique branded niche apparel segments," concluded Mr. Stec.

www.prnewswire.com/news-relea...107046558.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And a PR they put out last week :

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I.C. Isaacs and Samsung Announce Addition of New Brand to Partnership

NEW YORK, Nov. 23, 2010 /PRNewswire/ -- I.C. Isaacs & Company, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: ISAC) today announced that it has expanded its partnership agreement with Samsung (SCTA) to include the newly launched Flow Society brand of apparel and accessories. Under terms of the partnership, a long term arrangement, first launched in 2009, Samsung replaced Isaacs' in-house logistics and warehousing and provides working capital financing for the company's two brands, Marithe+Francois Girbaud and Flow Society.

"SCTA has the resources, experience and financial strength to assist Isaacs as we build our brands, our company and our future. Both parties are very excited to be partners in expanding the reach of the company into the active sportswear category. This is exactly what we both envisioned when we began discussing our future together. We are taking another positive step in executing our strategy of building a portfolio of niche brands that add revenue and profitability," said Bob Stec, Chief Executive Officer.

Flow Society is an internally generated concept developed and launched in the active apparel segment of the market in response to the explosive consumer interest and involvement in the sport of lacrosse. Lacrosse is the fastest growing sport in the US. It has a great American heritage-- founded here in the US—with a demographic profile that is very upscale and exploding in terms of both participants and spectators.

"We believe that Flow Society is a perfect fit for our strategy and our company. Most of the focus for the sport has been on hard goods. And we believe that we are filling a void in the apparel category," stated Bob Stec, CEO of Isaacs.

After a successful test marketing in both upscale specialty stores and Dick's Sporting Goods, Flow Society is being rolled out nationally beginning in the fourth quarter of this year. The product, which consists of patterned shorts, t-shirts, socks, hoodies and compression shorts is available in mens, boys and women's size ranges. "Initial consumer acceptance to the brand and the innovativeness of the product have been way above expectations," Stec added.

SCTA is a New York based subsidiary of Samsung International, that provides third party services to a variety of industries including the textile and apparel sectors.

www.prnewswire.com/news-relea...110129909.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(This is SCTA) : http://www.samsungamerica.com/graphics/aboutscta.asp

Cameron isnt that small of a PR firm, they do IR for quite a few mid level companies.

http://www.cameronassoc.com/clientnews.html

Love the part in the first PR where the CEO says they will be profitable and create value for SHAREHOLDERS...pretty nice to see that reference in the FIRST PR when the company has been hiding out all this time.

Girbaud clothes are alive and well, here is some stuff to look at :

http://nymag.com/fashion/fashionshow...ancoisgirbaud/

http://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php...64.95526754570

(Elle is one of the biggest fashion magazines)

FlowSociety shorts at work : http://www.lacrosseplayground.com/tags/flow-society

Girbaud himself is on the BOD for ISAC according to the last SEC filings, I have seen numbers of approx. However, there is a guy on IHUB saying he called the T.A. who says there are 252 million O/S now, I do not see how that can be because the thing barely traded the last three years, and it is moving on essentially air right now. Either the O/S is still 37mm shares or somebody has a very significant number of shares locked up.

Now there is some risk for a long term investment, but assuming the O/S is as last reported to the SEC at 37mm shares, this is probably very cheap for a company coming out of the dark. Girbaud is the legacy brand, but FlowSociety will probably be a more important segment to them down the road. They need to be able to INNOVATE as they start bringing in revenue or the company will die again like it has been doing for the last 10 years or so. They die, they restructure + come back for a few years, then it dies again. They need to get AHEAD of the curve this time. I'm holding for the move to a fully reporting company again and then we'll go from there once we see some numbers and guidance.

Disclosure : Long position. Make sure you DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE BUYING, as it is very difficult to get the whole story on a dark/pink sheet company. (And I do NOT have the full picture here, only snippets).

Tax Loss Selling - End of 2010

2010-10-13T19:47:00.000-07:00

Another thing I have noticed during my short time trading is what I call "tax loss selling," This happens at the end of every year when frustrated traders dump their biggest losers to book tax losses. The best companies seem to be ones that have been going down for several months preceding December, but then again, there is a reason why they are going down in the first place so you need to do some careful research before you run out buying everything in sight. If done properly, you will catch a nice bargain.

Here are some stocks I have my eye on for tax loss selling as the end of the year approaches, although it may not be until December when I buy, opportunities may arise earlier.

Allied Irish Banks - (NYSE:AIB) : Although this bank is soon to be partial-government owned, it has been on a decline for almost the entire year, which means that most everybody that has purchased this security is at a loss and I think the odds are high that it is going to really tank at the end of the year. Combine that with their upcoming rights offering and there is a recipe for disaster. BOI (Bank of Ireland - NYSE:IRE) is another I would keep an eye on, and is the likely winner long term in Ireland's banking industry, with no more government assistance needed. Most everybody is at a loss here as well.

SandRidge Energy - (NYSE:SD) : A more speculative (although large) natural gas play, most everybody that has purchased this equity is at a loss this year, I would look for a selloff to retest the recent lows. Someday natural gas is going to be huge in this country, when that day comes I dont know. Insiders were buying as recently as August, although the CEO completely exited his stock position recently, not sure how to take that.

http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1349436.htm

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC)/Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) : I would prefer Deutsche Bank out of these two, as Bank of America and other big U.S. banks have a time of reckoning with the bond insurers such as MBIA and Ambac down the road, and DB would be a currency hedge against a depreciating dollar. However, Bank of America could present a good buying opportunity in the next few months, especially if the foreclosure mess kicks into full gear.

There are also hundreds of smaller cap stocks such as Tix Corp (NASDAQ:TIXC -->OTC:TIXC) that will be the subject of tax loss selling, and will present better trading opportunities than some of these larger cap stocks. As we get closer to the end of the year I will post some of the ones I think are good buying prospects.

As for other stocks I am currently watching, some are MSB, NTWK, AVNR, C, AAPL as it continues higher, GOOG, and various other biotech plays with upcoming PDUFA decision dates.

I have a couple of spec plays I am also holding a small amount of, complete risk plays that could turn out very profitable if my research turns out to be right, or just a small loss. INVX as a possible bankruptcy restructure play, and INFX as a Mina mar (pump site) reverse merger play, they recently reinstated the ticker. Volume is so low that I had to sit for days on the bid just to get a few hundred bucks worth, would not recommend playing unless you perform a good amount of research on them. Also have been playing AVNR, ABWTQ, TRXBQ among other daytrades, and holding a position in KV.A long. Glta

Some random things I have learned

2010-09-15T18:44:00.001-07:00

As some of you know, I began the first step of my journey to being a full time trader around April of 2009 when we were coming off of the biggest capitulation we have seen in a long time on March 6th. Now when I first started trading I thought I would make a quick million by running around message boards chasing "pump and dumps." Get in when its going up and sell before it tanks...simple concept right??

Well, I thought it was, as I successfully pulled off on my first trade a 75% or so gainer overnight on a company called Silicon Graphics, which turned out to be a company about to declare bankruptcy, SGIC I believe the ticker was. I remember it to this day, went to 8am class with the computer, waited for the market to open, and went holy MF, up big and sold quick. Man did I think I was good, I needed to go out and find another one ASAP. Along came another stock called Biopure, biggest piece of crap I have ever seen in my life now that I look at it, and is now bankrupt trading under the lifeless insignificant ticker of BPURQ. I chased it (unknowingly), and an hour later I found myself down almost 50%. Well lets just say that was the end of the pump and dump search.

After a year and a half of success, failure, memories, and meeting a great crew called LVSI (Las Vegas Sands Investors), which is now www.mystockbuddy.com, here are some random things that I have learned (I think) about the stock market, and am sure a year from now I will be able to write even more.

(1) Unless you are trading on technicals/charts only, NEVER EVER buy something you dont understand, no matter how many friends, analysts, media people, etc tell you to buy (or short it).

I cant say how many times I have went and bought into something that I did not fully understand and quickly found myself in the hole. In fact, it seems that every time I buy something I am familiar with, I make money. Personally, each week I get myself familiar with one to two new companies (not necessarily big caps, I do not feel there is significant use for them other than capital protection), and then insert them into a watchlist and keep up with their news. A goofy bald headed guy named Jim Cramer taught me this, and he says you should spend an hour PER stock each week so you keep up to date with what is going on. I don't take that much time doing so, but if news comes out I read it.

(2) Pay attention when a stock is flatlined for a long period of time, and then all of a sudden out of nowhere spikes with big volume and holds its gains.

This is another one that I have learned to be profitable, you need to know the company before you purchase but often times there are people "in the know" that purchase before news comes out. Here are a few examples of this that have ended up holding their gains and increasing as time went on.....people in the know knew it ahead of time.

PIR : http://www.google.com/finance?q=PIR
KV.A : http://www.google.com/finance?q=kv.a
VG : http://www.google.com/finance?q=VG

Hopefully I am being clear with this, but often times if you see it ahead you can get in BEFORE the news, when it is likely too late. I am currently trying to wait for KV.A to settle down before buying in. Need to have a "feel" for it, and you need to use your head as to whether its a POS or not (HEB would be an example of a POS).

(3) Buying headlines generally is not a good idea.

I have found that buying on a news release GENERALLY is not very profitable, and usually find that I bought near the peak. Yes, it is not rocket science to experienced traders, but I had to learn it on my own, so I am writing it down now. In some instances, especially with biotech news, it is profitable to even flat out short the stock on a news release. Again, patience is needed and you must know what you are purchasing.

(4) It appears to me that generally speaking, Wall Street is full of crooks and there are many instances of manipulation, primarily by the big funds.

It seems that (at least in the short term), Funds and institutions upgrade stocks near their tops, and downgrade stocks when EVERYONE hates them. Just look at the semiconductors as of late, everyone plus their mom has been hating on the semiconductors, the funds downgraded them, and surprisingly, they have been heading upwards as of late. I do understand they are basing their research on valuation from numbers provided, but still find it odd that the stock price tends to head the opposite way of their rating.

Another great one is what has happened to ARNA the past few days. The FDA put out the briefing documents for the panel and (surprisingly), the stock tanked IMMEDIATELY when the notes were released. Literally, how could people read it that fast...it was over 200 pages. Obviously somebody got it ahead of time. Then after it starts tanking the media catches on and starts spewing article after article of hatred about ARNA, the very stock that everyone was in love with at 7$. Then the analysts came out, and every one but Piper Jaffrey has downgraded the stock after it already tanked. Way to be on the ball guys, both with being after the fact AND not knowing what would be in the FDA briefing....most all the information has been accessible for years, yet all of a sudden some preclinical rat study is the end of Lorqess. IMO 35 million shares got caught short and needed a way to hedge/get out, so what ensued is what was needed. Whether the FDA rules for or against is anyone's guess, but my point is there were hundreds of millions on the wrong side of the trade at 7$ and they needed a hedge.

(5) Find some people you trust that have experience and learn off of them.

This is one of the most important for me, and I think that I have come along alot faster since I started following guys like Kunal and John Welsh on twitter than I had all by myself. These guys know their stuff, and if you ever want to become a daytrader watch what these guys do...they are the best. Don't think you can learn everything on your own, you never will and the market will always throw a curve at you when you least expect it.

(6) Bankruptcy plays can be profitable if and only if you play them with patience.

This will be debated by many people, but I have found bankrupt stocks to be profitable for me as a whole, you need to be patient though and spend hours of research on the court filings to see what the parties + Judge are thinking. It's alot of work, but that's why its the best gains if one survives ;). Also, it seems that with every legit BK stock that will be re-emerging there is a big short covering at some point, lots of times between 2-3 months after the new ticker...you can kind of see it on the chart sometimes when its time to buy though, it flatlines, then a sudden drop followed by a flatline for a few days then its off. Need to watch volume though on the flatlines thats an indicator of accumulation

Portfolio Update :

I am currently long in ARNA (small) @ 3.88, pure gamble for fun, TRMAQ spec play @ .145, CPRKQ @ .00095, and TRXBQ spec play at .50, with quite a bit of cash. I had NEP as a long until today when I took 32% gains because it has gone straight up every day since it restarted trading.

I am watching for a buy on :

NEP
KV.A
HDY
IRE/AIB
BAC or WFC for the "long term account"
RAS to buy for another earnings pop followed by sinking ships again.

Portfolio/Trading Update 8/18/10

2010-08-18T20:08:00.000-07:00

I guess I havent been keeping this very up-to-date, I'll try to do a little better once school starts again and the 5am-5pm shift ends lol.

I havent been doing too much lately other than sitting on my hands + holding a couple of selected positions. The dog days of summer have been taking their toll, just not interested, and this crap market sure isnt helping.

Current portfolio consists of the following, one stock for "legit" moves, one "big drop" stock, one stock for "legit BK play," and one stock for "just for fun to keep me interested," with cash on the side gathering dust.

ARNA @ 6.83 Avg, I think I am done adding here, cant stomach too many more shares. Will be exiting this before panel notes are released in early September, with a 30 million share short position + several millions of insider ownership, I see this squeezing as we head into the panel. It's been forming a nice flag as of late, a nice upgrade/piece of news would light the candle up but otherwise VVUS began to show signs of life today, and I think this will help get ARNA going again.

COCO @ 4.95. I only bought a couple of these, still contemplating holding them for an extended period. I hate these for-profit edu-macation companies, but they really are pretty oversold right now as long as Obama doesnt try to bankrupt them any more than he has. Every scare the last couple years is "OMG BK OMG HELP" then..."Well that wasnt so bad now was it?" Betting that will happen here as well...still kicking myself for selling those 27$ BP shares...MF.

CPRKQ : My BK play, avg .0008. Dont touch this unless you have extensive background on the company.

WAMPQ : My "Just for fun" play, position is 29.50, will be holding this through the examiner's results next month/October...no idea what will happen, the $$ is there for a face value payout, just dont know if the FDIC/JPM will accept being crooks well.

Lost a few $ on some trades, dont really remember which ones, I kept a tight stop on everything though so nothing was more than a 50$ loss each. I did catch BVTI a week or so ago when it dropped to 1.00, bought 1500 shares and flipped them like a half hour later for 25% gains. Not too shabby lol.

I am watching BIOD - Biodel, ALXA - Alexza Pharma, SHLD - Sears Holding (earnings tomorrow morning 8/19), VVUS - Vivus, OREX - Orexigen, and MNKD - Mannkind. I would be comfortable starting an entry in all of these right here, and adding if we dip, I just dont have enough money to spread the wealth around on everything...so darn many deals out there.

This market just plain sucks butt, period end of story. The bears are probably full of it again though, first we rally too hard, then we sell off too hard...now that we're actually grinding now THAT is no good as well. Sometimes I think they just wake up every morning pissed at the world because they missed the March 09 bottom and proceeded to tell themselves for the next 13 months that it would come right back down. Banks are deleveraged and sitting on big cash, we might struggle for a bit from here but unless a JPM fails I dont see another crash happening for another (7) or so years when the next recession begins.

Let's see what happens, money gets made no matter how the market acts or how much volume there is ;-)

Portfolio Update 7/18/2010

2010-07-18T19:39:00.001-07:00

Well, it was a tough week for me, a week full of losses actually. I am looking forward to this week however, as a couple of my holdings will possibly move to the upside, albeit for very different reasons. I also took a pretty good sized loss in JLI/JLIC, I took my first chance at the endless averaging down strategy, but just couldnt stomach it anymore. I sold 40,000 / 60,000 ~ of my position for .0225~ for about 35% loss only to watch it go into the low .01's shortly therafter.

This has been a learning experience to chalk up in the books that I must stick to 300$ plays for these insane risk speculative plays. I have no idea what will happen with JLI, they have appealed their delisting order, which is evidenced by the "C" that was added to their ticker meaning continuance. If they would announce that the merger with Tri-Artisan Capital Partners is still on track to close in 3Q 2010, the stock will likely fly, and is why I left a few hundred dollars worth @ .02 behind. I should never have done more than that in the first place, but its a learning experience.

My portfolio is as follows :

RAIT Financial Trust (RAS) : 2,000 @ $1.99
AbitibiBowater Inc (ABWTQ) : 8,000 @ $0.087
Jesup & Lamont (JLIC) : 20,161 @ $0.022

*CASH

Free Shares :

Biovest International (BVTI)
Advanced Life Sciences Inc (ADLS)

RAS is scheduled to report earnings on July 23rd (this Friday), I am looking for possible taxable earnings this quarter (or next for sure). I really like this play, but have been watching the head & shoulders formation that it has been making and have a mental stop set on it. As for AbitibiBowater, a big shareholders committee that I am a member of filed for an equity committee late Friday afternoon, I am hoping for it to really take off on speculation, am not banking on it though. Here is some stuff to look at if one is interested... Keep in mind that as things currently stand, current equity WILL be cancelled unless an equity committee is appointed.

Website : http://abitibibowater.blogspot.com/

(Read the July 16th stuff for starters)

As for the overall market, there is still quite a bit of uneasiness out there, Brian Moynahan (BAC CEO) did not help things when he said on CNBC that they could see the economy slowing a bit. This is the dog days of summer though, there shouldn't be too much expected out of the market until after Labor Day when people come back from vacation.

Some stocks that I will be watching this week for possible entries are :

$VVUS : Under 5$ for FDA date runup
$ARNA : As low as possible, hopefully under 4$ for runup to their FDA panel date in a couple of months
$YRCW : I traded this one successfully recently, would like to see it pull back a bit to the mid teens for a ride upwards to/past earnings (MENTAL STOPS FOR PENNY STOCKS)
$AIB/$IRE/$NBG for possible trade into the stress test results, NOT holding AIB through but likely IRE, possibly NBG if I were to enter.
$IO : Long term play, under $3.50 would be good.

I am also watching the shipping stocks over the next month or so, the $BDI has been down something like 35 sessions in a row, eventually its going to turn around and shippers should move to the upside. Shippers are priced at late 2008-early 2009 levels IMO.

Not pushing anything hard, and trying to take a little time off from the stress of trading.

Current Positions - 7/13/2010

2010-07-13T21:07:00.000-07:00

I have been doing a bit of portfolio "rotation" that had started about a week and a half ago as the world was ending and I felt it was time to start buying. I sold my Mesabi Trust (MSB - one of my favorite long term stocks), sold a portion of my other favorite long term leverage interest play EHPTP, and traded YRCW from .125 to .16.

I now have positions in :

ABWTQ - AbitibiBowater (.088)
ABPIQ - Accentia Biopharmaceuticals (.83)
RAS - Rait Financial Trust (2.00)
JLI - Jesup & Lamont (.035)
BVTI - Biovest International (.98)

In addition to MSB, RAS is one of my favorite long term plays, and it appears they may turn a taxable profit this quarter or the next. If they do, dividends should follow right behind. I have a fair amount of my portfolio in this one, and am comfortable buying all the way down to the 1.00$ area. Any lower and the economy may be in pretty serious trouble. I like ABWTQ very much as a Spec play, just have a small portion of the account in it. ABPIQ and BVTI I have been going back and forth trading for free shares, I can get in and out fairly easy because the size of my orders isnt that big. I like BVTI long term, Biovax ID is sweet.

(I am a bit of a biotech junkie, I tend to go in cycles though, sometimes I like to own alot of biotech, sometimes I leave them be...I don't really have one that draws my attention right now other than BVTI).

Note on JLI --- complete garbage play that supposedly has a merger that will close in 3Q 2010 with Tri-Artisan, a big private firm. It is (was) authentic, but Tri-Artisan recently took it off their website after I emailed them about it (hmm?) Will probably sell most at breakeven because of this, ride free shares all the way to the promised land or death if I get some.

Introduction

2010-07-13T20:37:00.001-07:00

Well, as you know, I am commonly known as a "pesky fly" to many, but my real name is Matt, and I attend a private university (shock!) for my college education. In the summers I work as a caretaker for rich people's houses and cut grass on one of the local golf courses. In between all of this, I have been attempting to learn on the side the art of stock trading/investing. I have been following the market every single day since fall 2008, I really have no idea how I started watching it daily, some days I really regret ever learning it, some days I think it's the best thing that ever happened to me. I am learning that it seems to come with the territory lol. The important thing though is to minimize those bad days and maximize the good ones.

In order to do this though, you need to do a few things...

1) Dont follow a freaking pump, and when you identify a stock as one that is frequently "pumped," either know EXACTLY what you are getting into or stay the heck away from it for good!!!! Some stocks I consider to be "pump" stocks are CVM, HEB, PWRM, and any other stock that puts out frequent PR's that don't seem to be significant at all. Most times, companies that do that are trash...do you see Alcoa putting them out??? Didn't think so.

2) Try not to allow yourself to get into situations where you will get burned. Chasing pumps qualifies, but also make sure you have some idea of what you are buying BEFORE pulling the trigger also helps. I have found my best trades are ones that I have spent time (the more time spent the better the trade seems to be) on. If you are not familiar with what you are buying, you will not know its movement pattern, thus, you can't pick your entry point properly, or the exit point for that matter.

3) PATIENCE IS A VIRTUE. I have a couple very good friends that have been attempting to get this through to me for over a year now, yet I find myself drifting away from it when it is needed the most. You get burned if you are not patient, use your head!!

4) Take FREE SHARES in a company you like in this volatile trading environment and let them ride. Also learned from a good friend, I have found this to be one of the more successful methods for me, as it both teaches me PATIENCE, as well as allows me to actually profit from a company that I spend hours researching and decide it is worthy of my money and dedication. Just because you turn a profit though doesnt mean that you should take free shares though, you need to determine if the company has a future or not. Look up the ticker EVFN for instance, this company does NOT have a future and is a scam. This is NOT something to leave shares behind in. Something like a RAS on the other hand, while it is speculative, there is in my eyes a chance of significant upside in the coming years, and possibly dividends that could amount to 10-50% annual income. This is worth possibly leaving shares behind in.

Finally :

5) Take advice from experienced traders --- it doesnt come along often so when you are given advice.... CONSIDER and possibly even USE IT. Each person has their own methods, but combining methods together will make you a better trader in the end as you become more experienced!!

I also am an admin on another stock website in my spare time... http://www.mystockbuddy.com, the core members have pretty much been together ever since early 2009, adding a few here and there. I have learned a great deal from the fellow members during this time, and read most every post that's done on the site (ughhh).

Stocks :

My first stock was bought in like 6th grade, 5 shares of Dupont (NYSE:DD), and was purchased because "Jeff Gordon is my favorite NASCAR driver." lol. I still own these shares to this day + the accumulated divs (now like 8 shares or something... LOL), dont plan on selling at least until Jeffy retires.

I tend to be a gunslinger, I can go for a couple months not making very much money or even losing, then all of a sudden I go on a spurt where I hit several 20-100% gainers in a short time. I can't really explain it, just happens that way...I need some more experience as my TIMING, not my stock selection/trading methods, is usually what costs me. I have hit some like ABK from .80 - 3.00 and STSA .90 - 1.50 in the span of a few hours to a couple days, and have had some longer term winners like GNVC from .80 - 3.15 and 1.70- 3.00~, HEB .80 - 3.75, MSB, HGSI 2~ - 11 etc etc. I have also had some bombs, and just cant seem to figure out how to "beat them." MBI, AIB, OCNF, and (lately) JLI are at the forefront of this list, there are others as well that aren't so rough on me.

Part of the problem with my poor trading habits is the size of my account...it is small due to the fact that my family isn't the richest family in town (not poor, just middle class), and my tuition bills are about 15-25k a year...not much money left. I suspect if I had more money I would be more patient and wouldnt take so many risks, but it is what it is. I have the "chase-itis" at times...that is, buy a stock I like and then a couple days later I see another stock I like get "cheap," then go OMG I NEED and get tempted to unload something right away. Lots of money turnover for me, not a good thing and am working on it.

Let's make some money together!!!